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Risk Scales And Factors Predictive Of Sexual Offence Recidivism

Willows Clinic, Birmingham, United Kingdom, and Centre for Forensic and Family Psychology, University of Birmingham

Kevin D. Browne

Centre for Forensic and Family Psychology, University of Birmingham, and World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark

Ian Stringer

Willows Clinic, Birmingham, United Kingdom, and Centre for Forensic and Family Psychology, University of Birmingham

Accurate assessments of levels of risk posed by sexual offenders are in high demand as decisions concerning whether an offender should be released into the community can have severe consequences both for the offender and the public. This article reviews factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism and the 12 most widely used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. It was found that 10 out of the 12 actuarial and clinical measures available are better at distinguishing general recidivism than sexual offence reoffending. Ten assessments predominately use static risk factors, and 7 do not consider treatment effects. Hence, the validity of these instruments for use with sex offenders is in question. It is argued that the use of both static factors and variations of dynamic risk factors, using the actuarial approach, will predict those offenders who will reoffend and distinguish them from those who are not likely to reoffend. Evidence-based dynamic risk factors that are sensitive to sexual reoffending are identified.

Key Words: sex offenders • risk assessments • actuarial risk instruments • static risk factors • dynamic risk factors • receiver operating characteristic

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				L. A. Craig, K. D. Browne, and l. Stringer Comparing Sex Offender Risk Assessment Measures on a UK Sample Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol, February 1, 2004; 48(1): 7 - 27. [Abstract] [PDF]